Year
2000
Authors
VRANCEANU Radu, BESANCENOT D., WARIN T.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of joining the EMU for transition economies It emphasizes a hidden cost that may occur during the probationary period, where the applicant country must keep the euro exchange rate within a narrow fluctuation band. The model builds a two-period game with incomplete information. It is shown that, under certain circumstances, the suboptimal pooling equilibrium may occur. In this configuration, interest rates include a devaluation risk premium, and the economic activity is depressed.
BESANCENOT, D., VRANCEANU, R. et WARIN, T. (2000). Pays de l’Est : le coût d’une candidature à l’Union Européenne Monétaire. Économie Internationale / International Economics, pp. 65-76.