Working Papers

Reputation in a Model of Exchange Rate Policy with Incomplete Information

Year
1997
Authors
VRANCEANU Radu, BESANCENOT D.
Abstract
Inspired by the contemporary process of European monetary integration, this paper analyzes exchange rate policy as a finite horizon sequential game under incomplete information of the private agents over the priorities of the central bank. The policymaker has two conflicting objectives: stimulating activity and preserving the parity of the currency. It will be shown that the game presents a perfect Bayesian equilibrium, the most interesting case deals with the pooling situation, where in the central bank undertakes a policy of strong currency during an introductory period, and devaluates in the very few moments before the transfer of its functions to the supra-national central bank. The model suggests a rationale for the persistent risk premium on interest rates in the countries applying for the European Monetary Union.
BESANCENOT, D. et VRANCEANU, R. (1997). Reputation in a Model of Exchange Rate Policy with Incomplete Information. ESSEC Business School.