Essec\Faculty\Model\Contribution {#6196`
#_index: "academ_contributions"
#_id: "2085"
#_source: array:26 [``
"id" => "2085"
"slug" => "multinomial-var-backtests-a-simple-implicit-approach-to-backtesting-expected-shortfall"
"yearMonth" => "2018-03"
"year" => "2018"
"title" => "Multinomial VaR Backtests: A Simple Implicit Approach to Backtesting Expected Shortfall"
"description" => "KRATZ, M., LOK, Y.H. et MCNEIL, A.J. (2018). Multinomial VaR Backtests: A Simple Implicit Approach to Backtesting Expected Shortfall. <i>Journal of Banking and Finance</i>, 88(C), pp. 393-407."
"authors" => array:3 [``
0 => array:3 [``
"name" => "KRATZ Marie"
"bid" => "B00072305"
"slug" => "kratz-marie"
`]
1 => array:1 [`
"name" => "LOK Y. H."
`]
2 => array:1 [`
"name" => "MCNEIL A. J."
`]
]
"ouvrage" => ""
"keywords" => array:6 [`
0 => "Backtesting"
1 => "Banking regulation"
2 => "Expected shortfall"
3 => "Financial risk management"
4 => "Statistical test"
5 => "Value-at-Risk"
`]
"updatedAt" => "2021-09-24 10:33:27"
"publicationUrl" => "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426618300086"
"publicationInfo" => array:3 [`
"pages" => "393-407"
"volume" => "88"
"number" => "C"
`]
"type" => array:2 [`
"fr" => "Articles"
"en" => "Journal articles"
`]
"support_type" => array:2 [`
"fr" => "Revue scientifique"
"en" => "Scientific journal"
`]
"countries" => array:2 [`
"fr" => null
"en" => null
`]
"abstract" => array:2 [`
"fr" => "Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, capital charges are based on the coherent Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measure, which is sensitive to tail risk. We argue that backtesting of the forecasting models used to derive ES can be based on a multinomial test of Value-at-Risk (VaR) exceptions at several levels. Using simulation experiments with heavy-tailed distributions and GARCH volatility models, we design a statistical procedure to show that at least four VaR levels are required to obtain tests for misspecified trading book models that are more powerful than single-level (or even two-level) binomial exception tests. A traffic-light system for model approval is proposed and illustrated with three real-data examples spanning the 2008 financial crisis."
"en" => "Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, capital charges are based on the coherent Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measure, which is sensitive to tail risk. We argue that backtesting of the forecasting models used to derive ES can be based on a multinomial test of Value-at-Risk (VaR) exceptions at several levels. Using simulation experiments with heavy-tailed distributions and GARCH volatility models, we design a statistical procedure to show that at least four VaR levels are required to obtain tests for misspecified trading book models that are more powerful than single-level (or even two-level) binomial exception tests. A traffic-light system for model approval is proposed and illustrated with three real-data examples spanning the 2008 financial crisis."
`]
"authors_fields" => array:2 [`
"fr" => "Systèmes d’Information, Sciences de la Décision et Statistiques"
"en" => "Information Systems, Decision Sciences and Statistics"
`]
"indexedAt" => "2024-02-28T15:21:47.000Z"
"docTitle" => "Multinomial VaR Backtests: A Simple Implicit Approach to Backtesting Expected Shortfall"
"docSurtitle" => "Articles"
"authorNames" => "<a href="/cv/kratz-marie">KRATZ Marie</a>, LOK Y. H., MCNEIL A. J."
"docDescription" => "<span class="document-property-authors">KRATZ Marie, LOK Y. H., MCNEIL A. J.</span><br><span class="document-property-authors_fields">Systèmes d’Information, Sciences de la Décision et Statistiques</span> | <span class="document-property-year">2018</span>"
"keywordList" => "<a href="#">Backtesting</a>, <a href="#">Banking regulation</a>, <a href="#">Expected shortfall</a>, <a href="#">Financial risk management</a>, <a href="#">Statistical test</a>, <a href="#">Value-at-Risk</a>"
"docPreview" => "<b>Multinomial VaR Backtests: A Simple Implicit Approach to Backtesting Expected Shortfall</b><br><span>2018-03 | Articles </span>"
"docType" => "research"
"publicationLink" => "<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426618300086" target="_blank">Multinomial VaR Backtests: A Simple Implicit Approach to Backtesting Expected Shortfall</a>"
]
+lang: "fr"
+"_type": "_doc"
+"_score": 8.61403
+"parent": null
}