When planning the production of durable consumer goods, the assessment of future demand is of great importance. Often an attempt is made to draw conclusions about future buying behavior from surveys about the purchase intentions of consumers. In most of these surveys, respondents are asked to determine the intensity of their purchase intentions by specifying a simple rating on a scale between 0 (no intention to buy) and 5 (definite intention to buy). However, if the information obtained in this way is used for forecasting purposes, one must keep in mind that no excessive claims for accuracy may be made. First, there is a gap between the data collection and the actual purchase. Lien vers l'article
WAGNER, U. and BEMMAOR, A.C. (1989). Zur Prognose des Kaufverhaltens aus Kaufabsichtdaters mit Hilfe des Betabinomial-Modells (On the Prediction of Purchase Behavior from Intentions Data by Means of the Beta Binomial Model). In: Operations Research Proceedings 1988, DGOR Papers of the 17th Annual Meeting, D. Pressmar et al., eds. Berlin: Springer, pp. 418-425.