Retour aux résultats
Articles (2005), International Journal of Forecasting, 21, pp. 201-218

Non-parametric Direct Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes

Chevillon Guillaume , Hendry David

We evaluate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting at several horizons. For forecast accuracy gains from DMS in finite samples, mis-specification and non-stationarity of the DGP are necessary, but when a model is well-specified, iterating the one-step ahead forecasts may not be asymptotically preferable. If a model is mis-specified for a non-stationary DGP, in particular omitting either negative residual serial correlation or regime shifts, DMS can forecast more accurately. Monte Carlo simulations clarify the non-linear dependence of the estimation and forecast biases on the parameters of the DGP, and explain existing results.

CHEVILLON, G. and HENDRY, D. (2005). Non-parametric Direct Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, pp. 201-218.

Mots clés : #Economic-ForecastingAdaptive-estimation-ion, #multi, #step-estimation, #dynamic-forecasts, #model-mis, #specification