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Documents de travail (2015), ESSEC Business School

Fear of Novelty: a Model of Scientific Discovery with Strategic Uncertainty

BESANCENOT D., VRANCEANU Radu

This paper analyzes the production of fundamental research as a coordination game played by scholars. In the model, scholars decide to adopt a new idea only if they believe that a critical mass of peers is following a similar research strategy. If researchers observe only a noisy idiosyncratic signal of the true scientific potential of a new idea, we show that the game presents a single threshold equilibrium. In this environment, fundamental research proceeds with large structural breaks followed by long periods of time in which new ideas are unsuccessful. The likelihood of a new idea emerging depends on various parameters, including the rewards of working in the old paradigm, the critical mass of researchers required to create a new school of thought and scholars’ ability to properly assess the scientific value of new ideas.

BESANCENOT, D. and VRANCEANU, R. (2015). Fear of Novelty: a Model of Scientific Discovery with Strategic Uncertainty. ESSEC Business School.