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Articles (2010), Journal of Policy Modeling, 32 (5), pp. 842-864

Estimates of Trade-Related Adjustment Costs in Syria

Lim Jamus , Saborowski Christian

The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscore the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in the domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in the proposed EU-Syria Association Agreement, and border tax-related changes affecting the domestic import regime. We find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario are likely to be low if an appropriate stepwise implementation of the agreement can be ensured; our analysis of the second scenario suggests that all border taxes can be eliminated, and the number of tariff bands reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, if a VAT of a reasonable size is introduced. Lien vers l'article

LIM, J. and SABOROWSKI, C. (2010). Estimates of Trade-Related Adjustment Costs in Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(5), pp. 842-864.

Mots clés : #Trade-policy, #Trade-adjustment-costs, #Tariff-reform, #Syria