Année
2026
Abstract
Using a Spence-type signaling framework, this note interprets the Publish-or-Perish system as a screening mechanism through which publications in elite journals reveal otherwise unobservable research ability. Because Large Language Models (LLMs) reduce the cost of producing publishable research, their diffusion may weaken the signaling value of publication by narrowing productivity differences across scholars. High-quality scholars may respond through excess publication, while increased submission volumes may generate congestion in elite journals. The analysis suggests that the future of the Publish-or-Perish system depends on the interaction between signaling efficacy, strategic adaptation, and publication congestion.
VRANCEANU, R. (2026). The End of the World as We Know It? LLMs and the Future of Publish-or-Perish. WP 2606, ESSEC Business School.