Année
2026
Auteurs
TÉDONGAP Roméo, Ann Xing Bingxin, Feunou Bruno
Abstract
We define the Individual Excess Inflation Rates (IEIR) for consumer goods and services as their Individual Inflation Rates (IIR) minus the CPI inflation rate. Cross-sectional heterogeneity in the IEIRs of consumer items can be explained by their varying exposures to both pro-cyclical factors (e.g., long-term inflation expectations, wages, and consumer sentiment) and counter-cyclical factors (e.g., the unemployment gap, economic policy uncertainty, and financial conditions). Approximately 40% of the variation in IEIRs is attributable to the differential responses of items to these macroeconomic factors. Items that are more sensitive to pro-cyclical factors tend to display lower IEIRs, whereas those more responsive to counter-cyclical factors exhibit higher IEIRs. These findings remain robust after controlling for other potential drivers, such as inflation volatility and persistence.
ANN XING, B., FEUNOU, B. et TÉDONGAP, R. (2026). Robust regularities in the heterogeneity of consumer price inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 163, pp. 103536.