Année
2026
Auteurs
LIM Jamus, Long Xin
Abstract
We study how deviations from covered interest parity — captured by the cross-currency basis (CCB) — affect output growth. Using quarterly data for advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs) in panel VAR and IV-local-projections models, we find that positive CCB shocks reduce output, implying that easier dollar funding conditions can be contractionary. While dollar liquidity still supports growth during acute stress episodes in AEs, it has the opposite effect in normal times. In AEs, exchange-rate appreciation compensates holders of local-currency assets, eroding export competitiveness and lowering growth. In EMs, easier dollar access encourages shifts into local-currency assets, crowding out domestic liquidity and dampening activity.
LIM, J. et LONG, X. (2026). The dollar squeeze and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 87, pp. 103740.