Essec\Faculty\Model\Contribution {#2188
  #_index: "academ_contributions"
  #_id: "2231"
  #_source: array:26 [
    "id" => "2231"
    "slug" => "physical-market-determinants-of-the-price-of-crude-oil-and-the-market-premium"
    "yearMonth" => "2009-07"
    "year" => "2009"
    "title" => "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium"
    "description" => "CHEVILLON, G. et RIFFLART, C. (2009). Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium. <i>Energy Economics</i>, 31(4), pp. 537-549."
    "authors" => array:2 [
      0 => array:3 [
        "name" => "CHEVILLON Guillaume"
        "bid" => "B00072304"
        "slug" => "chevillon-guillaume"
      ]
      1 => array:1 [
        "name" => "RIFFLART C."
      ]
    ]
    "ouvrage" => ""
    "keywords" => array:1 [
      0 => "Cointégration"
    ]
    "updatedAt" => "2020-12-17 17:55:06"
    "publicationUrl" => null
    "publicationInfo" => array:3 [
      "pages" => "537-549"
      "volume" => "31"
      "number" => "4"
    ]
    "type" => array:2 [
      "fr" => "Articles"
      "en" => "Journal articles"
    ]
    "support_type" => array:2 [
      "fr" => "Revue scientifique"
      "en" => "Scientific journal"
    ]
    "countries" => array:2 [
      "fr" => null
      "en" => null
    ]
    "abstract" => array:2 [
      "fr" => "Cet article analyse les déterminants physiques (i.e. non financiers) du cours réel du baril de pétrole brut à l'aide d'un modèle à correction d'équilibre estimé sur les deux dernières décennies. Nous montrons que deux relations de cointégration affectent les variations du cours : l'une est reliée aux tentatives de l'OPEP de peser sur les cours à l'aide de son pouvoir de marché et de ses quotas de production , l'autre lie le taux de couverture de la demande future des pays de l'OCDE aux comportements des stocks de brut. Nous obtenons une équation régissant la variation des cours et nous l'utilisons pour analyser les éléments spéculatifs de l'explosion des cours au début de ce millénaire. Nous montrons que des inquiétudes étrangères aux marchés physiques sont à l'origine de l'augmentation des cours et nous sommes à même d'en quantifier l'impact."
      "en" => "We analyze the determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades where we focus on the aspects of the physical market that impact on the clearing price. We ?nd that two cointegrating relations a?ect the changes in prices: one refers to OPEC's behavior, attempting to control prices using its market power and quotas, the other to the coverage rate of OECD expected future demand using inventory behaviors. We derive a forecasting equation for the change in oil prices which we use to assess the speculative elements of the price increases of the period 2000-05. We show that worries alien to the physical markets were the causes of the increase in oil prices and we quantify their overall impact."
    ]
    "authors_fields" => array:2 [
      "fr" => "Systèmes d’Information, Sciences de la Décision et Statistiques"
      "en" => "Information Systems, Decision Sciences and Statistics"
    ]
    "indexedAt" => "2024-04-24T18:22:07.000Z"
    "docTitle" => "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium"
    "docSurtitle" => "Journal articles"
    "authorNames" => "<a href="/cv/chevillon-guillaume">CHEVILLON Guillaume</a>, RIFFLART C."
    "docDescription" => "<span class="document-property-authors">CHEVILLON Guillaume, RIFFLART C.</span><br><span class="document-property-authors_fields">Information Systems, Decision Sciences and Statistics</span> | <span class="document-property-year">2009</span>"
    "keywordList" => "<a href="#">Cointégration</a>"
    "docPreview" => "<b>Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium</b><br><span>2009-07 | Journal articles </span>"
    "docType" => "research"
    "publicationLink" => "<a href="#" target="_blank">Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium</a>"
  ]
  +lang: "en"
  +"_type": "_doc"
  +"_score": 8.910675
  +"parent": null
}