Les modélisations du risque de change

In the past twenty-five years, the foreign exchange markets have suffered a series of violent crises. Various researchers have tried to model them. Their work was started in 1977 after the publication of a seminal article by Krugman. Thus, were produced "first generation models" which have not satisfactorily explained the 1990's European and Latin American crises. Efforts were then devoted to "second generation models". These, in turn, have poorly explained the 1997 Asian crisis. This article gives a general description of the different classes of foreign exchange crises models. It underlines their main features, strengths and weaknesses. The general conclusion is that a satisfactory understanding of foreign exchange crises has not been achieved yet.

AFTALION, F. (1998). Les modélisations du risque de change. Bankers, Markets and Investors, pp. 5-10.