This article presents the specific difficulties of sales forecasting for new telecommunication products : network externalities, substitution between successive generations, and option value. A probit model of purchase decision is then presented. According to the first results of sales, it appears that this model is inadequate for forecasting. The article attemps to improve ex ante forecastings, using the Bass model - where saturation appears to be too fast, and then, using the avalanche model.
LE NAGARD, E. and STEYER, A. (1995). La prévision des ventes d'un nouveau produit de télécommunication : probit ou théorie des avalanches ? Recherche et Applications en Marketing, pp. 57-68.