ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper estimates different monetary policy rules for the ECB with monthly data during the period 1999.04-2002.02. The results show that the ECB exhibits a rather conservative behavior: a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate above its target brings about a 1.2 percentage point increase in the interest rate. Like the FED, its policy is influenced by real activity. The Bank also smoothes changes in interest rates over time. Despite the announced money growth “reference value”, it does not reacts to changes in M3 growth rates.

FOURÇANS, A. and VRANCEANU, R. (2002). ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence. ESSEC Business School.