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Presentations at an Academic or Professional conference (2007)

Constructing a New Real Estate Risk Index for the Paris Residential Market

BARONI Michel , BARTHELEMY F., MOKRANE M.

In this paper we investigate the driving factors associated with the Paris apartment market. We explore a database of around 276 000 transactions for residential properties in the Paris area over the 1982-2005 period. We develop a factorial model that may capture the systematic link between residential prices and a set of predefined economic variables or their linear combination. We measure this link by a multifactor approach which underlines the "true path" of the real estate market in the sense that systematic factors can represent it. The factors thus derived can be used to generate a "actor model" useful in comparison to existing price growth indices and that may provide valuable intuition for forecasting residential prices.

BARONI, M., BARTHELEMY, F. and MOKRANE, M. (2007). Constructing a New Real Estate Risk Index for the Paris Residential Market.

Keywords : #Facteurs-de-risque, #Indices-immobiliers, #Risque-immobilier, #Ventes-répétées