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Presentations at an Academic or Professional conference (2017), CMAstat 2017

A Self-Calibrating Method for Heavy Tailed Data Modeling. Applications in Finance and Insurance

DEBBABI N., KRATZ Marie , MBOUP M.

One of the main issues in the statistical literature of extremes concerns the tail index estimation, closely linked to the determination of a threshold above which a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) can be fitted. Approaches to this estimation may be classified into two classes, one using standard Peak Over Threshold (POT) methods, in which the threshold to estimate the tail is chosen graphically according to the problem, the other suggesting self-calibrating methods, where the threshold is algorithmically determined. Our approach belongs to this second class proposing a hybrid distribution for heavy tailed data modeling, which links a normal (or lognormal) distribution to a GPD via an exponential distribution that bridges the gap between mean and asymptotic behaviors. A new unsupervised algorithm is then developed for estimating the parameters of this model. The effectiveness of our self-calibrating method is studied in terms of goodness-of-fit on simulated data. Then, it is applied to real data from neuroscience and finance, respectively. A comparison with other more standard extreme approaches follows.

DEBBABI, N., KRATZ, M. and MBOUP, M. (2017). A Self-Calibrating Method for Heavy Tailed Data Modeling. Applications in Finance and Insurance. In: CMAstat 2017.